At ScoreSensei, we use a simple methodology to generate win/loss/draw probabilities and other insights for upcoming football (soccer) matches. Here's an overview of how our model works:
We gather extensive historical data using worldfootballR to build a comprehensive dataset of past match results, including details like date, competition, home and away teams, scores, etc. This allows us to analyze over 10 years of match data across many top leagues and competitions worldwide.
A key component of our model is creating offensive and defensive ratings for each team that quantify their goal-scoring and goal-preventing abilities. We use Poisson distributions along with the historical match data to estimate these ratings, which are dynamic and update as new matches are played.
Using the team strength ratings, we can calculate expected goals for each team in an upcoming match. This tells us how many goals we'd expect each team to score based on their ratings. We combine multiple expected goal metrics using different samples of historical matches to improve accuracy.
Once we have expected goal totals, we run thousands of Monte Carlo simulations for each match. In each simulation, we randomly draw goal totals from Poisson distributions using the expected goals. Summing up wins, losses and draws across all simulations gives us win/draw/loss probabilities.
On top of expected goals and simulations, we also incorporate factors like home advantage, league strength, recent form momentum, and more. This gives us a complete picture of influences on match outcome.
For leagues where advanced stats like expected goals (xG) are available, we are looking to integrate these metrics into our model in the future. xG data will allow us to further refine our team strength ratings.
By combining statistical modeling with simulation and relevant contextual factors, our methodology generates probabilistic match predictions. We're constantly tweaking and improving our model as new data comes in. Please check out Score Sensei to see our latest football (soccer) predictions and insights!